Background
In my previous post, I had looked at Odisha’s history, geography, electoral history and profiles of its prominent politicians. Let us now turn to the state’s demographics.
Demographics
According to the 2011 census, Odisha was India's 11th most populous state with 4.2 crore people, of which 83% was rural. Hindus dominate the state, as shown in chart below:
The chart above illustrates that Odisha's largest minority are Christians. The Christian population is most made up of tribals and concentrated in the districts that border Jharkhand (Sundargarh, 18.4% of population) and Andhra Pradesh (Gajapati , Kandhamal and Rayagada have 38%, 20% and 9% Christian population). The table below lists 7 tribes with large Christian populations:
The Muslim population on the other hand is concentrated in urban centres of Bhadrak, Cuttack, Sambalpur, Balasore and Rourkela. (>10% by population). In Bhadrak alone, Muslim population is 35% of the total, and therefore can influence electoral outcome. (this is a historical consequence of the conquest of Odisha by the Nawab of Bengal)
A caste-wise break up of the population is presented below1:
Scheduled tribes constitute 23% of the state population. The following tribes are both numerous and geographically dispersed (they make up about half the overall tribal population), while other tribes are both geographically concentrated and smaller in numbers. For example, the Binjhal tribe is around 1.5% of the ST population and is mostly found in one district (Bargarh).
Scheduled castes constitute about 17% of the population. The dominant SCs (>5% of SC population) are listed below. The SC population is fairly well dispersed. A majority of the Pan caste that lives in Southern Odisha have converted to Christianity. Disputes between Khond (most numerous ST) and Pan in this region led to the Kandhamal riots in 2008.
Odisha's 46% OBC population is spread across 211 castes. The state completed an OBC census in 2023, becoming the sixth in India to do so, although its results are not public. Khandayat (landlords, peasant militia kshatriya caste), Chasa (cultivator), Gopala (Yadav), and Teli (Sahu) are the primary OBC castes.
The Brahmin and Karana castes are dominant in the general category. A Karana or Brahmin has been CM for 62 years out of 71 years in post-independence Odisha, indicating their political dominance. In fact, an ST has been CM only for little more than a year. The above fact also indicates that no single caste is powerful enough to influence electoral outcomes. Having understood the demographics, let us now segment the states into sub-regions for easier analysis.
Political Regions
Odisha can be divided into 3 regions- Northern and Southern Tribal regions and the Eastern region as shown in map below. As name suggests, the tribal regions are dominated by STs. The Eastern region is the post politically significant region as it elects 65 of the states’ 147 MLAs. The Northern tribal region is the second most significant and elects 45 MLAs. The BJP won most of its seats in this region in 2019. The Southern tribal region elects 37 MLAs and has a significant Christian population and is hence categorised separately. The Southern tribal region has historically been supportive of the INC.
The electoral performance region-wise in 2019 is as follows:
Let us now investigate the state of Odisha’s public finances.
Public finances
In 1998, Odisha's state finances were so terrible that it couldn't pay its staff on time and the RBI banned it from borrowing further. (its debt to GDP was nearly 60% of GDP in 2003-04, and it could manage funds without recourse for hardly 15 days) The state had a revenue surplus less than a decade after this nadir. Odisha currently meets all RBI risk parameters, as below picture shows:2
Three reasons contributed to the turnaround in public finances, in my opinion.
Privatisation of the state electricity board: Odisha’s power sector reforms have been an ongoing subject of discussion ever since the late 1990s, since it was a pioneer. As attached articles show, it is still a work in progress. However, the benefit of this reform on public finances is inescapable. More recently, the state government got an incentive to the tune of nearly 1% of its overall revenue from the centre for power sector reforms.
Prudent fiscal management: Since 2000, the state has been known for transparency and efficiency in implementing programs. It has had a revenue surplus for over 15 years and one of the lowest debt-to-GDP ratios in India.
Mining royalties: Mining royalties have increased significantly, as shown in the table below. Nearly 25% of state revenues came from mining royalties in FY 22-23. Most importantly, the state maintains a budget stabilisation fund to insulate mining revenue volatility from the budget. (1st state in India to do so)
This fiscal discipline has been linked with successful on-the-ground delivery of 62 welfare schemes (as of date!!) targeting urban poor, women self-help groups, universal health coverage, and local government budget devolution. Two notable schemes amongst these are:
The Biju Swasthya Kalyan Yojana scheme, that provides universal coverage of health insurance for Rs. 5 lakh per male and Rs. 10 lakhs per female, available at both private and government healthcare facilities both within and outside the state.
The Ama Odisha Nabin Odisha (Our Odisha New Odisha) scheme that devolves Rs. 4000 crores per annum to improve rural digital, physical infrastructure and promote ‘Jagannath culture’ in the state.
Simultaneously, the state has attained food self sufficiency in the last 2 decades by a series of interventions on irrigation and procurement and distribution of inputs. Currently, the state is not only self-sufficient but also one of the largest contributors to India’s PDS pool. The Kalahandi district (which was infamous in the 1900s for starvation deaths) is now the second largest food producing district in Odisha.
In my last and concluding part next week, I will look at the current electoral scenario, the key political issues and share my projections for the state.
SC, ST figures are from 2011 census. OBC figures are from state OBC census 2023
Source: “State Finances: Risk Analysis”, RBI bulletin, June 2022