Background
I analyse Haryana next. This state contains 2 of the greatest battlegrounds in Indian history- Kurukshetra and Panipat. As an agrarian state that is located right next to Delhi, it is politically significant. Most of Haryana’s land area comprises of the Yamuna-Ghaggar alluvial plain making it one of India’s agricultural powerhouses, and more recently centre of farmer protests. Just like its varied landscape that includes the Sutlej-Yamuna Doab, the shifting sand dunes of the Bagar region in its West, the low Aravallis in the South, and the Shivaliks in the North, its politics is as diverse. Haryana is also notorious for its frequent political defections (‘Aaya Ram Gaya Ram’ politics originates from a Haryana MLA Gaya Lal who changed parties twice in a day and thrice in a fortnight!). Haryana is also known for its political clans, most notably the 3 Lal clans- Bansi Lal, Bhajan Lal and Devi Lal, Hooda clan, Chaudhary Birendra Singh clan and Rao Birendra Singh clan. Details of these clans are found here.
Post-Independence History
Haryana was carved out of Punjab following the Punjab Reorganization Act 1966. Haryana politics since can be subdivided into 3 broad phases i.e the Congress (INC) dominance phase, the Devi Lal phase and the BJP dominance phase.
In the 1st phase(1947-1972), the INC was the dominant party in unified Punjab (1947-1966) and later in Haryana (1966-1977). In this phase, the INC enjoyed vote shares in excess of 40%, and it faced a very fragmented opposition (see table below1). Despite such a fragmented opposition, the first INC government in Haryana fell apart due to internal squabbles within the INC (a feature that endures to this day!).
Bansi Lal, who became INC CM in 1968, introduced Tamil as the second official language of Haryana to highlight the distinctness of his state’s identity vis-a-vis Punjab, even though Punjabi was the second most popular language in the state. Tamil continued to enjoy this ‘status’ till the INC government restored Punjabi as the second official language in 2010.
Please note that the Bharatiya Jan Sangh (precursor of the BJP) commanded around 10% vote share right from Haryana’s inception.
Vote Shares in legislative Assembly Elections in Haryana (1951-1972)
All figures in %
Notes: In 1951, 1957 and 1962, Haryana was part of Punjab State. Vishal Haryana Party led by Rao Birender Singh was the first breakaway splinter from INC
Between 1977 and 2014, Devi Lal and his family were prominent in state politics and elections became a bi-polar contest between the INC and him/his legacy (he died in 2001). In the aftermath of the emergency, the Janata Party won the highest ever electoral majority in Haryana, and Devi Lal became the 1st non-congress CM in 1977. Since then, the INC and the Devi Lal led opposition alternated in power till 2005. The INC broke this trend by retaining power for almost 10 years and Bhupinder Singh Hooda became the longest serving CM (as measured by unbroken tenure) of the state. In this period, politics became more bipolar (top 2 parties won ~60-70% vote share). Further, BJP’s vote share remained steady at ~10% (see table below).
Vote Share in Assembly Elections in Haryana (1977-2009)
All figures in %
Notes: Janata Party in 1977 unified both Bharatiya Jan Sangh and Devi Lal’s party.
INC splinter parties are:
Vishal Haryana Party (1977), which later merged into INC.
Haryana Vikas Party of Bansi Lal (set up in 1996 and merged back into INC in 2004).
Haryana Janhit Congress started by Bhajan Lal in 2006 and merged back into INC in 2016.
After a meteoric rise in vote share (~24%), the BJP first came to power in 2014 and retained it in 2019 with a reduced majority (though improved vote share). The BJP is believed to have achieved this feat by capitalising among the anti-Jat sentiments prevalent among SCs, OBCs and non-Jat upper castes. State politics have changed since the BJP entered and squeezed both the INC and Devi Lal clan, as shown in the table below.
Vote Share in Assembly Elections 2014-2019 and 2024 General Election
All figures in %
Notes:
The 2014 INC splinter faction Haryana Janhit Congress merged into INC in 2016. In 2022, Bhajan Lal's son and family joined the BJP.
Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) is a splinter party from the INLD of the Devi Lal clan. Ajay Chautala (Devi Lal’s son) and his son Dushyant Chautala are its founders.
2024 General election figures shown for latest reference. INC figures include that of the AAP, which fought in alliance with INC and won ~4% of the vote on its own2.
General and state election dynamics vary, however the following can be inferred from above table.
INC vote share has rebounded.
Both parties of the Devi Lal clan (INLD, JJP) have lost substantial support.
BJP and INC are evenly matched in terms of vote share.
Before diving further into its politics, it is important to understand Haryana’s demographics.
Demographics
Haryana is overwhelmingly Hindu3 as shown below.
The Sikh and Muslim populations are geographically concentrated as illustrated below. Among the 4 districts that border Punjab (pink areas in map below), Sirsa district is ~26% Sikh making them a potent political block there, while it is 10-15% in the other 3 districts. Muslims are concentrated in 3 districts (green areas in map below). Muslim are in a overwhelming majority in Mewat (~80% of total population), significant in neighbouring Palwal (~20% of population) and in Yamunanagar (~10% of population).
Concentration of Minority Populations in Haryana
The districts bordering Punjab have a large Sikh and Punjabi-speaking population. Punjabi is spoken by 73% of Sirsa residents and 41% of Fatehabad residents. About 10% of the population in Ambala, Panchkula, Kaithal, Karnal, and Kurukshetra speaks Punjabi.
Haryana’s population can be segmented by caste as follows:4
Scheduled Castes constitute around 20% of Haryana’s population. Chamars are the dominant SC caste (48% of SC population), followed by Balmiki (18%) and Dhanak (11% of SC population). Smaller SC castes like Bazigar, Mazhabi Sikh and Od each make up 3% of the SC population. As Chamars are believed to traditionally support the INC, the BJP has been actively increasing outreach among other SC castes to counter this. The 4 districts of Ambala, Fatehabad, Sirsa and Yamunanagar have >25% SC population. The Southern districts of Mewat, Gurgaon and Faridabad have lower SC populations (<15% of total).
OBCs constitute around 35% of the state’s population. Southern Haryana is home to the two most prominent OBC castes- Gujjars and Yadavs5. Other important OBC castes are Lohar, Dhobi, Teli, Kumhar, Saini, Lodh, Meo and Gosain. OBC support has been critical to the BJP’s rise in Haryana. The BJP has consistently installed non-Jat CMs in the state and recently replaced M.L. Khattar (a Punjabi Khatri) with Nayab Singh Saini (an OBC) to expand its OBC outreach. The recent state government move to increase OBC reservations from 15% to 27% and the income cut off for OBC creamy layer from Rs. 6 lakhs to Rs. 8 lakhs should be seen from the OBC outreach perspective. Further, the new Union ministry has 2 OBCs from Haryana (1 Yadav and 1 Gujjar).
General castes constitute around 45% of the state’s population. Jats dominate this category (20-25% of population) and have traditionally wielded political power (Jats have been Haryana CM for >60% of the time). The Jat population6 in Haryana is more concentrated in Central Haryana (see map below) and they hold the key to electoral victory in nearly 40 of the 90 assembly seats in the state. Other important general castes are Rajputs, Brahmins, Khatris, Banias (each around 5% of the population).
With this knowledge of demography, we will now divide Haryana into political regions for analysis.
Political Regions
I have divided Haryana into 3 regions- Northern, Central and Southern for easier analysis.
The Northern region comprises of the districts bordering Punjab that have significant Sikh and Punjabi population. Parts of this region (Sirsa, Fatehabad, Ambala and Yamunangar) have high proportion of SC population. BJP lost both the SC reserved seats of Ambala and Sirsa in the recent general elections. Jat influence is relatively lower here. Some parts of Yamunanagar that border U.P. have significant Muslim population. This region contains 35 out of the 90 seats in the Vidhan Sabha.
The Central region is dominated by Jats and is almost overwhelmingly Hindu (>95%). This region contributes 32 seats to the Vidhan Sabha. BJP lost all 3 lok sabha seats in this rwgion in the recent election.
The Southern region comprises the Ahirwal, Mewat and NCR sub-regions. Ahirwal is dominated by Yadavs, Mewat by muslims and remaining areas of Gurugram, Faridabad have both Gujjar and Yadav dominance. This region sends 23 MLAs to the Vidhan Sabha.
I will conlude this series next week with a look at the current political environment, issues in this election and projections.
Source: Election Commission of India
AAP contested in one seat (Kurukshetra) and lost.
Source: Census 2011
SC population data taken from Census 2011. OBC and General castes data from https://www.findeasy.in/haryana-population-by-religion/
A region in South Western Haryana has traditionally been called Ahirwal, owing to Ahir/Yadav dominance (there are 11 seats in ths region)