Political Regions
I have divided the state of Rajasthan into eight regions as shown in map below, based on dominant communities or shared culture.
The number of seats contributed by each region to the state Vidhan Sabha is presented in chart below.
We will now analyse each of these regions in decreasing order of their political relevance (Vidhan Sabha seats).
Marwar is politically the most important region since it elects nearly a quarter of the state’s MLAs. This region comprises of the districts of Bikaner, Barmer, Nagaur, Jalore, Jaisalmer, Jodhpur and Pali. The region, literally meaning ‘the land of the desert’ is dominated by the Aravalli mountains, the Luni river and the desert. Some parts of this region are well endowed with natural resources. For instance, the Taj Mahal’s marble was got from Makrana, in Nagaur district. More recently, the presence of oil (Mangla Oil field) and the proposed refinery have transformed the economy of Barmer district. [1]. The Khetri mines In Jhunjhunu district accounts for most of India’s copper production. Also, the setting up of Bhadla solar park ( the largest solar park in the world with an installed capacity of 2250 MW) near Jodhpur has also created renewable energy opportunities. The primary language spoken here is Marwari. This region was ruled by Rathore Rajputs. The predominant castes of this region are Rajputs, Brahmins and Banias. Meghwals form the dominant SCs. Amongst OBCs, Bishnois and Jats are prominent. Though this region is Hindu dominated, clusters of Muslims are found in Nagaur, Jodhpur and Pokhran. (around 15-20% of population). In these pockets, Muslims can influence the electoral outcome.
The Matsya region (that contributes 35 MLAs) comprises the districts of Alwar, Bharatpur, Dausa, Sawai Madhopur, Karauli and Dholpur. Also subsumed in this region is Mewat (sections of Alwar, Bharatpur). Khadi Bholi and Braj Bhasha are mostly spoken here, and Mewati is spoken in the Mewat region. This area was ruled by Jats (Bharatpur, Dholpur) and Rajputs (Alwar, Karauli) and consequently, both remain powerful communities. Meos (Muslim Rajputs) ruled in the Mewat region. Incidentally, Jats in Rajasthan are considered part of OBCs except in Bharatpur and Dholpur (where they were the ruling class!). Jats, Rajputs and Brahmins form the dominant upper castes in this region. Yadav and Gujjars are the prominent OBCs of this region. The SC community has significant number of Jatavs (the caste to which Bahujan Samaj Party BSP leader Mayawati belongs to) and Kolis, while the Meena caste dominates amongst the STs. Muslims constitute around 20% of the population in the areas of Tijana, Ramgarh and Kaman in this region (Meos were resettled here after the pre-partition riots).
The Dhundar region (31 MLA contribution) comprises the state capital Jaipur and the districts of Ajmer and Tonk, and gets its name from the river Dhund that flows through this region. Meena kings and later Kachwaha Rajputs ruled this area. Since Jaipur attracted all communities, no single caste or community dominates the politics of this region. Only one area (South Ajmer) has significant Scheduled Tribe population (possibly the Koli caste). Kishan Pole, Adarsh Nagar and Hawa Mahal are 3 Vidhan Sabha constituencies where Muslims constitute more than 30% of the population, and consequently shape its politics. An analysis of the names of MLAs elected suggests a blend of castes including Rajput, Jat, Gujjar, Brahmin, Bhairwa, Meena and Koli, thereby signifying that no single caste dominates.
The Mewar region elects about 10% of the state’s MLAs and comprises the districts of Chittorgarh, Udaipur, Rajsamand, Bhilwara and Sirohi. For the sake of homogeneity, I have removed the areas of Udaipur district that are Bhil dominated and included them in the Vagad region. This region is rich in limestone deposits, thus enabling Rajasthan to become one of India’s top 3 producers of cement. Mewari language is spoken primarily in this area. This area was ruled for centuries by the Rajputs. Amongst upper castes, Rajputs and Brahmins are present in significant numbers. Amongst STs, Meenas and Garasiyas are present in significant numbers. Amongst SCs, Meghwals and Koli are the major castes present.
The Shekhawati region comprises the districts of Jhunjhunu, Churu and Sikar, and contributes 10% of the state’s MLAs. The Shekhawati language is spoken here. This region was ruled by Shekhawati Rajputs and politically, they remain the dominant upper caste. Gujjars and Jats constitute the dominant OBC castes. Muslims are present in the towns of Churu, Fatehpur, Sikar and Mandawa (around 20% of the population). Amongst SCs, Meghwal are more than 50% of the SC population in Jhunjhunu and Churu, while the Balai caste accounts for more than 50% of the SC population in Sikar. There is very little ST presence in this region. Farmer distress in the Sikar region led to a farmer led protest in 2017 that resulted in BJP losing seats here and also led to pockets of influence for the Communist Party of India (Marxist) i.e. CPIM.
The Hadauti region (a.k.a. Bundi kingdom) refers to the districts comprising Bundi, Kota, Baran and Jhalawar and elects 17 MLAs. This kingdom was ruled by Meenas till the 14th century and then by Chauhan Rajputs. Hadauti is the main language spoken in this region. The area is dominated by Hindus, who comprise about 90% of the population. Muslims constitute 8% of the population with Jains and others contributing 1% each. Kota city alone has a significant Muslim population (15-18%), making them electorally significant. There are small pockets around Kishanganj that are dominated by Scheduled tribes (Sahariya, Meena castes). Scheduled castes comprise about 20% of the population with Bhairwa, Meghwal and Chamars being the predominant castes (around 70% of the SC population belongs to these 3 castes). Among other castes, Gujjars, Rajputs, Meenas are the prominent ones. The politics of this region, is dominated by the presence of Vasundhara Raje who represents Jhalrapatan in Jhalawar district. Her son is the Lok Sabha MP from this region. Om Birla, the Lok Sabha speaker, is a 2 term MP and a 3 term MLA from the Kota region. Kota is famous both for its limestone and the success enjoyed by its coaching centres.
As discussed before, Bhils dominate the population in the region comprising Banswara, Dungarpur, Pratapgarh and some parts of Udaipur district. Vagadi is the main language spoken here (hence the name Vagad for the region). This whole region is dominated by STs, and all seats in this region are reserved for them. (17 seats in all). Apart from Bhils, Damor tribe is also present in significant numbers. Tribal politics is in churn and the creation of a new party focussed on Rajasthan (after the collapse of the Bharatiya Tribal party that sought to unify STs of Gujarat and Rajasthan) is a significant force in this election.
The last region we analyse-Bagar, contributes only about 5% of the state’s MLAs, but is one of Rajasthan’s most intriguing areas. This area has semi-arid, semi-fertile land that lies in between shifting sand dunes, and comprises of the Ganganagar and Hanumangarh districts (that border Haryana and Punjab). The language spoken here is Bagri. The opening of the Indira Gandhi Canal brought the waters of the Sutlej and the Beas to this region, creating farming opportunities. More than a third of the population here belong to SCs. The Meghwal, Thori Nayak (each constituting 25% of SCs), Baoris, Majabhi (each constitute 15% each of SCs) are the predominant amongst them. Further, there are significant number of Sikhs who live in this region, making them electorally relevant. In the political arena, CPI, CPIM, BSP all command some following here because of the presence of the SC agricultural class.
Every party in India claims to work for the small farmer. Ironically, in Rajasthan, The NUZP (National Unionist Zamindari Party) was set up in 2013 to protect the interest of Guar farm owners and has some influence here. Rajasthan is the world’s largest producer of Guar or cluster bean and Guar gum is used in a variety of food products. The founder of the party also set up Vikas WSP Limited, the world leader in Guar gum.
Party hopping and rebellion within parties is extremely common, resulting in multi-cornered electoral contests. Therefore, candidate selection and maintenance of party discipline is key to electoral success. Also, since the threshold for success in a multi-cornered contest is low, this is an appropriate region for a political fledging like the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
The historical political allegiance of each region in the last 3 Vidhan Sabha elections is summarised below: (Sweep =70% of seats+, Win =55-70% of seats, Draw = 45-55% of seats)
As evident from the above, each region is quite distinct, making It impossible to identify one as the state’s defining electoral predictor. The table above shows that most regions have changed hands politically. Mewar and Hadauti seem to be BJP electoral strongholds.
Coincidence? The Shekhawati region has backed the winner in the last 3 elections.
Before making electoral projections, we will now unravel the current political issues that matter to both parties, since even seemingly small and local issues can derail a party in a close election.
‘Rooted’ Senior Leadership
Since 2018, most news readers have probably heard about the tussle in the Rajasthan INC State unit between Ashok Gehlot (3 term CM) and Sachin Pilot (son of former Union Minister Rajesh Pilot). Vasundhara Raje (a 2 term CM of the state) remains the BJP’s tallest state leader but is yet to be recognised as its CM face. Both Mr. Gehlot (72 years old) and Ms. Raje (70 years old) are mass leaders who have invested decades building their name in state politics, and unambiguously demonstrated their unwillingness to move out of it.
After the INC win in 2018, it was widely presumed that Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot would serve as the CM on a rotational basis. Mr. Pilot was sworn in as deputy CM in 2018 as per this ‘agreement’. The refusal of Mr. Gehlot to honour this ‘agreement’ led to a rebellion by Mr. Pilot in 2020 and his resignation from the cabinet. Even though the situation was de-escalated through internal negotiations, there has been bitter public feuding between both camps and Mr. Pilot has till date not been accommodated in the either state party unit or the cabinet. Partly to solve this tangle, Mr. Gehlot was to have been appointed as the INC’s national president in 2022. However, Mr. Gehlot engineered a ‘show of strength’ and remained the CM. Mr. Gehlot’s strong support base within the state party unit and MLA’s (nearly 80% of the MLAs remained loyal to him during the 2020 rebellion) and his expressed desire to remain in state politics imply that the CM’s post is not up for negotiation. Furthermore, after the last elections in 2018, Mr. Gehlot demonstrated his astute skills in getting support from 11 independents (all Congress rebels) and smaller parties (BSP, BTP, CPIM etc.) to get a comfortable majority for the INC, thereby enhancing his reputation with the party leadership. The party will therefore have to contend with this impasse in the run-up to this election.
In the BJP, Ms. Raje has shown herself to be a mass leader with an independent streak. For years, the Central leadership has been striving to replace Ms. Raje with someone more ‘amenable’ to the party high command. Various names have been floated as CM contenders, but every such plan has came unstuck because none matches her stature (she is the only leader to have brought the BJP to power on its own twice, a feat not even achieved by the tallest political leader of the state, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat). As with Mr. Gehlot, Ms. Raje has reportedly refused to be ‘accommodated’ elsewhere and has shown her desire and clout to remain in state politics.
I believe that both the INC and BJP have settled the leadership issue in favour of Mr. Gehlot and Ms. Raje respectively, but ticket distribution and campaigning will be a challenge.
In March 2023, the BJP replaced Satish Punia as state party chief with C.P. Joshi. Satish Punia had a bitter, running feud with Vasundhara Raje. His replacement by the mild mannered, RSS-backed MP from Chittorgarh signal the BJP high command’s tacit approval of Vasundhara Raje. Further, another Raje baiter, Gulab Singh Kataria, was shifted as governor of Assam in February 2023. Om Mathur (71 years old, a protégé of Bhairon Singh Shekhawat) was moved to Rajya Sabha and was not renominated when his term expired in July 2022. Ghanshyam Tiwari (75 years old) , Kirodi Lal Meena (71 years old) are both alternative power centres to Raje and are currently serving Rajya Sabha terms that last till middle of 2024. However, the continuing influence of union ministers like Gajendra Singh Shekhawat (believed to be the high command’s CM choice) and Arjun Ram Meghwal in state politics implies that the leadership issue is not fully settled.
The Congress factional struggle between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot seems to be at an uneasy calm now. Ashok Gehlot has managed to remain CM but failed to oust Sachin Pilot from the party. Sachin Pilot does not appear to have the mass support or support among INC MLAs to topple Mr. Gehlot. I believe that Mr. Pilot will wait for anti-incumbency to take out his rival and then position himself for the INC pole position in the next election. (Gehlot is 72 years old, Pilot is 45). In addition to leadership issues as discussed above, the prospect of rebellion continues to haunt both parties.
The Threat of Rebellion
In the last elections in 2018, nearly 30 out of 200 seats featured rebel candidates. 12 of these rebel candidates won (11 from INC and 1 from BJP), thereby upstaging their party’s ‘official nominee’. Rebels adversely affected the BJP in 10-15 constituencies. In close elections, rebellion is an existential issue to political success. As of July 2023, the impact of rebels is impossible to predict.
Regional Threats
There are 4 parties that can play spoilsport in particular regions of Rajasthan. Firstly, the Bagar and Matsya regions have traditionally had pockets of BSP influence. The BSP won 6 seats in 2018 and 2 seats in 2013, but all 8 MLAs subsequently defected to the INC. The BSP will likely contest in this election, but its influence will wane (in line with its national trends). The BSP may play spoiler (for both parties) in the Matsya region (especially if rebels contest under its banner). Paradoxically, all the 6 seats won by the BSP in the 2018 elections were not SC reserved seats but general seats, suggesting that it may be a vehicle for disillusioned rebels rather than having its own dedicated vote bank.
Rajendra Gudha, the dissenting Rajasthan INC MLA (with claims of the mysterious red diary!) in the news this week, switched over from the BSP to the INC in 2019
The Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) headed by the maverick ex-BJP Jat leader, Hanuman Beniwal is likely to adversely impact the BJP in about 10-15 seats in Marwar, specifically in Nagaur and its adjoining districts. Mr. Beniwal has had a love-hate relationship with the BJP (I think this is because of a personality issue with Ms. Raje). He fought the Vidhan Sabha elections in 2018 separately, only to ally with the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. He again split with the BJP in 2020 and seems set on contesting alone. His party not only attracts Jat voters in this sub-region, but also serves as a platform for any rebels.
Ajay Chauthala, son of former Haryana CM OM Prakash Chautala and grandson of famous Jat leader and former Deputy PM of India Devi Lal, and his son Dushyant Chauthala are likely to enter Rajasthan through their party Jannayak Janta Prty (JJP). The BJP faces a two-fold threat from this Jat-centric Haryana party entering Rajasthan. Rajasthan has had historical pockets of support for the Chauthala family. Mr. Devi Lal, his son-OP Chauthala, and his grandson-Ajay Chauthala, have been elected before to the Rajasthan assembly. Secondly, due to a fractured electoral mandate, the BJP and the JJP are in an uneasy post-poll alliance in Haryana. The BJP will not want competition for the dominant Jat vote bank in Rajasthan. Even though the JJP has been making conciliatory gestures and ‘offering’ to contest only in seats where the BJP is weak in Rajasthan, I foresee no alliance being forged. I have therefore assumed in my analysis that the JJP will hurt the BJP in 5-10 seats adjoining Haryana.
Finally, The Bhils have broken their allegiance to the Bharatiya Tribal Party (which won 3 seats in 2018) and opted to endorse community selected candidates in the Vagad region. This phenomenon can either supplant both dominant political parties or play spoiler, as results to local body elections in 2021 demonstrated. The tribal party was denied top posts in the local body because of a tacit post-poll understanding between the BJP and the INC. I predict that the Bhils will form a party and contest all seats in the Vagad region and win 3-4 seats. They will equally damage the prospects of both parties in the other seats and make it a tri-partite contest.
Freebies and Slog over announcements: Will they work?
The correlation between freebies and electoral success has been debated for many decades now. In Rajasthan, a host of populist measures (urban job guarantee, free power upto 100 units, smartphones for women, subsidised LPG cylinders and state medical insurance upto 25 lakhs etc.) were announced in the February 2023 budget.
Like the gripping finale of a T-20 cricket match, the Gehlot government has made a slew of announcements in the run up to the elections, including the creation of 19 new districts in March 2023 (mainly in areas that supported the Congress). More recently, the Rajasthan Government announed an urban job guarantee scheme and a gig worker welfare scheme in the last 3 days. Although the extent to which these freebies and announcements will influence voters cannot be known exactly, I believe that the freebies may have marginal impact (since overall inflation has been relatively high in the recent past) and the district announcements may have minimal impact (since nothing is likely to have changed at the ground level before the elections)
Sustained BJP Protest Campaign
The BJP has maintained a sustained and visible campaign against the incumbent INC government on various issues like the exam paper leak case, atrocities against women, handling of communal clashes, power shortage. The BJP also launched a much publicised Jan Aakrosh Yatra in December 2022 to focus attention on the alleged misdeeds of the Ashok Gehlot government. While many of these issues are neither new or peculiar to the INC alone, I believe that this sustained campaign may create momentum for anti-incumbency to set in. This strategy may be marginally effective in a close election.
Resentment of non-Jat OBCs
In the past 6 months, various caste groupings in Rajasthan (Jats, Rajputs, Brahmins, Kumawats, Malis and Prajapathis) have held rallies in the capital in order to pressurise political parties to advance their caste’s interests. Many OBCs feel that their interests have been subsumed by Jats and Gujjars, and are now demanding caste-specific reservation quotas (on the basis of an OBC caste census). In many seats, these smaller backward castes actually make up 30-40% of the population and are electorally significant, making this a politically sensitive issue. While Malis may remain with the INC (Mr. Gehlot is the only Mali MLA in the assembly), shifts in loyalties of Prajapathis and Kumawats can affect the results in nearly 20% of the constituencies. I expect hectic negotiations closer to poll dates with both parties engaging with these castes but not making any commitments that may antagonise Jats and Gujjars.
We are now fully aware of Rajasthan’s political history, culture, economy, demographics, current issues and party scenario. We will conclude this series on Rajasthan next week with final projections.
Thanks for reading…
[1] A sixth of India’s oil production and a tenth of its natural gas production comes from this area.
Woah great analysis